Risk Assessment Bibliography

Doug Hubbard of Hubbard Decision Research recently published a list of interesting sources (on the Society of Information Risk Analyst listserve) that he has used in his work writing on various risk assessment methods and tools. I thought that you might find this list to be of interest. Doug's contact information can be found at the end of this BLOG. Here's what Doug has to say...
"It’s been pointed out that it will be helpful for some to produce full citations for the names I’ve cited as sources.  I’ve been writing about these sources for years and I know I’ve posted them here before, but for future reference here are the sources I generally refer to when I cite Cox, Fox, Meehl, Brunswik, Dawes, Russo and Schoemaker and a few others. 
 
When I mention names like Tsai, Heath, Gonzalez and Andreassen, I refer to the their research in how confidence increases with more analysis but not necessarily judgmental performance.  This is what I referred to collectively as evidence of an “analysis placebo”  Some of that research is:
 
•        C. Tsai, J. Klayman, and R. Hastie, "Effects of Amount of Information on Judgment Accuracy and Confidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 107, no. 2 (2008): 97–105.
•        C. Heath and R. Gonzalez, "Interaction with Others Increases Decision Confidence but Not Decision Quality: Evidence against Information Collection Views of Interactive Decision Making,"
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 61, no. 3 (1995): 305–326.

•        Andreassen, P.” Judgmental extrapolation and market overreaction: On the use and disuse of news” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, vol. 3 iss. 3, pp 153-174, Jul/Sep 1990
 
When I talk about decision analysis methods of any sort having empirical evidence of improving performance over expert intuition, I may also cite Dawes and Brunswik articles and Meehl’s seminar book: 

•        Robyn M. Dawes, "The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision Making," American Psychologist 34 (1979): 571–582.
•        Egon Brunswik, "Representative Design and Probabilistic Theory in a Functional Psychology," Psychological Review 62 (1955): 193–217.
•        Robyn M. Dawes and Bernard Corrigan, "Linear Models in Decision Making," Psychological Bulletin 81, no. 2 (1974): 93–106.
•        P. E. Meehl, Clinical versus Statistical Prediction (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1954), pp. 372–373.
 
You already saw a Budescu paper in Jeff’s biblio but here it is again:

D. V. Budescu, S. Broomell, and H.-H. Por, "Improving Communication of Uncertainty in the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change," Psychological Science 20, no. 3 (2009): 299–308.
For Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, he has written a lot but his criticism of risk matrices and ordinal scales is nicely summarized in this paper:  L. A. Cox Jr., "What's Wrong with Risk Matrices?" Risk Analysis 28, no. 2 (2008): 497–512.
 
When I cite Shoemaker and Russo, there are several papers but they are summarized nicely in the book they co-authored “Decision Traps” 1990.  Scheomaker also co-authored and co-edited an important collection in Decision Sciences: An Integrative Perspective. 1993 
 
I’m sure I’m missing a few names but if you need more, let me know."
 
Douglas W. Hubbard
Hubbard Decision Research
O: 630 858 2788
M: 630 258 0146